Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
